NIKOLA TESLA HYPOTHESES, TESTEDNIK · the Nikola Tesla Web Evaluator
The Evaluator tests Nikola Tesla hypotheses, and yours, against the agency’s own data. Every claim that some factor moves the earthquake count gets the same treatment: the agency's own data, a stated null model, declustered catalogs, a fixed seed — and the result is published whether it finds something or nothing.
Do you have a hypothesis to test?
Submit a hypothesis for testing →
Community hypotheses enter the same certified test pipeline as every evaluation on this board — evaluate, certify, publish — and each result is published whether it finds an effect or a null.
- 4
- Evaluations
- 4
- Null
- 0
- Effect
- 0
- Inconclusive
- 4
- Certified (OpenTimestamps)
- 9
- Files fingerprinted
Do you have a question to test?
A spreadsheet you’ve kept for years, a trunk of your grandfather’s records, a public file nobody has checked. One question, one dataset, and we test it the same way we test our own — pre-registered, seeded, reproducible, published either way.
We publish the method before the result, the data with the result, and the misses with the hits.
Which hypotheses have been tested?
One row per evaluation. NULL means the factor did nothing measurable; EFFECT means it did and the page says how much; INCONCLUSIVE means the sample was too small to say. Every row links to its method, its numbers, its certificate and the command that reproduces them. p is two-sided; where an evaluation runs many tests at once it is the smallest Bonferroni-corrected p.
| ID | Question | Result | Ratio | p | Run | Certified | Re-run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E001 | Do the eight planets sit anywhere unusual — ecliptic latitude, nodes, proximity to Earth, angle to the Sun — at the times of large earthquakes, compared with random times? | NULL | — | 0.543 | 2026-10-27 | ✓ 2026-10-27 | command › |
| E002 | Do large earthquakes happen more often at new or full Moon, at perigee, near the lunar nodes, or at high Moon+Sun tidal amplitude, compared with random times? | NULL | — | 1 | 2026-10-27 | ✓ 2026-10-27 | command › |
| E003 | Across magnitude and depth groups of the declustered M5.5+ catalog, do earthquakes cluster at new/full Moon, at perigee, or on the highest-tide days, compared with random times? | NULL | 0.956 | 1 | 2026-10-27 | ✓ 2026-10-27 | command › |
| E004 | Do geomagnetic storms (Kp ≥ 7-/8-/9-) show any measurable effect on the number of declustered earthquakes in the following 14 days? | NULL | 1.015 | 0.454 | 2026-09-09 | ✓ 2026-10-27 | command › |
Evaluate → Certify → Publish
Evaluate
NIK, the lab's always-on machine, downloads the agency data, declusters the catalog, draws the null from a fixed seed and writes the result file with a SHA-256 for every input.
Certify
The result, the verdict and the chart are hashed and time-stamped (OpenTimestamps), so the published numbers can be proven unchanged later.
Publish
Five gates must all pass — primary sources, reproducibility, fingerprints, stated method, clean language — before this page is even built. There is no override.
Take the data, not our word
The board above is rendered from evaluations.json — the only file the site reads. Want a factor tested? Start at Submit an idea; the terms are on that page.
Nikola Tesla Web sells a $3.69/month membership to its live tools. The Evaluator is free, and its results are published regardless of what they show.
Which primary sources does this page use?
Tesla’s own record first, then the agencies that publish the data. Commentary on this page is kept separate from quotation.
- USGS Earthquake Hazards Program — ComCat — the agency earthquake catalogue
- GFZ Potsdam — official Kp index — geomagnetic activity, Kp
- evaluations.json — the only file the board reads
- E004 reproduce bundle — the script, the three data files and result.json
- NASA JPL Horizons — the reference for Moon, Sun and planet positions (E001–E003)
- E001 reproduce bundle — the script, its helper and both cached inputs
- E002 reproduce bundle — the script, its helper and both cached inputs
- E003 reproduce bundle — the script, its helper and both cached inputs
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What do people ask about the Evaluator?
What do NULL, EFFECT and INCONCLUSIVE mean?
NULL means the factor did nothing measurable; EFFECT means it did and the page says how much; INCONCLUSIVE means the sample was too small to say. Every row on the board links to its method, its numbers and the command that reproduces them, and every result is published either way.
Do geomagnetic storms change the global earthquake rate?
Evaluation E004 tested it and found no measurable effect. In its headline cell of 295 geomagnetic storms, declustered earthquakes in the following 14 days gave a rate ratio of 1.015, with a two-sided p of 0.454 — a NULL result, published with its method, seed and data.
Can I submit a hypothesis for testing?
Yes. Use Submit a hypothesis for testing: a title, the hypothesis, the data that would test it, and an optional email. No account is needed. Community hypotheses enter the same certified pipeline — evaluate, certify, publish — and the result is published whether it finds something or nothing.