{
 "_": "Nikola Tesla Web Evaluator board — written by tools/evaluator_ntw.py; the site reads only this file",
 "tagline": "Nikola Tesla Web · With your help, we evaluate everything.",
 "updated": "2026-10-27T12:00:00-05:00",
 "count": 4,
 "evaluations": [
  {
   "id": "E001",
   "title": "Planet positions vs global M7+ earthquake times",
   "question": "Do the eight planets sit anywhere unusual — ecliptic latitude, nodes, proximity to Earth, angle to the Sun — at the times of large earthquakes, compared with random times?",
   "result": "NULL",
   "headline_cell": {
    "planet": "Mercury",
    "most_extreme_metric": "mean proximity index"
   },
   "n": 704,
   "ratio": null,
   "p": 0.5431,
   "headline_stats": {
    "largest_abs_z": 2.621,
    "bonferroni_family": 62,
    "draws": 2000
   },
   "teaser": null,
   "cells": 8,
   "factor": {
    "name": "Planet positions · JPL Table 2a/2b elements, checked against JPL Horizons DE441",
    "source": "https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons/"
   },
   "target": {
    "name": "USGS ComCat",
    "source": "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/"
   },
   "method": "For each of 704 M7.0+ mainshocks (USGS ComCat, real UTC event times, Gardner–Knopoff 1974 declustering of the M5.5+ catalog) the positions of Mercury → Pluto are computed and summarised by 8 metrics per planet (62 tests; Sun-angle for Mercury/Venus left out because they never reach opposition). Each metric is compared with a Monte Carlo null of 2000 randomized-time sets under three schemes — A uniform over 1970–2025, B same day-of-year in a random year, C same year at a random time (C removes the slow-planet artefact) — seed 369. A cell keeps the least extreme of the three nulls; its p (normal approximation from z) is Bonferroni-corrected over all 62 tests. EFFECT needs corrected p < 0.05.",
   "run_date": "2026-10-27",
   "seed": 369,
   "script": "tq_eval_001_planets.py",
   "machine": "NIK",
   "evaluator": "NIK · Nikola Tesla Web AI Evaluator",
   "fingerprints": {
    "usgs_m55_1970_2025.csv": "eb0b76b9c7b7bcf9cad71b8a18652509df1247428ab2f7ca1a07d1b9a81ad16c",
    "horizons_check.json": "507fb16447190f1ef29f8eb6bf8cb92a6c7b5705d7304c4ee73acedb7707dad4"
   },
   "note": "Quake times are hypocentre origin times; planet positions use the Almanac v1.3 core (J2000 ecliptic). Proximity is the Almanac 1–100 index per planet. Earlier research run 2026-09-04 used date-only times on the undeclustered M7+ list; this is the stricter re-run.",
   "url": "/evaluator/E001",
   "chart": "/evaluator/E001_chart.png",
   "published": "2026-10-27T12:00:00-05:00",
   "certified": true,
   "certified_at": "2026-10-27",
   "manifest": "/evaluator/E001_MANIFEST.sha256",
   "manifest_sha256": "e3a9db2cc4a8868228501593d8502edd3f5385ce83ce007c7cb8f0a2177b20e6",
   "ots": "/evaluator/E001_MANIFEST.sha256.ots"
  },
  {
   "id": "E002",
   "title": "Moon and Sun vs global M7+ earthquake times",
   "question": "Do large earthquakes happen more often at new or full Moon, at perigee, near the lunar nodes, or at high Moon+Sun tidal amplitude, compared with random times?",
   "result": "NULL",
   "headline_cell": {
    "metric": "New-or-full Moon bunching (Rayleigh, doubled phase)"
   },
   "n": 704,
   "ratio": null,
   "p": 1.0,
   "headline_stats": {
    "largest_abs_z": 1.439,
    "bonferroni_family": 12,
    "draws": 2000
   },
   "teaser": null,
   "cells": 12,
   "factor": {
    "name": "Moon & Sun positions · Meeus ch. 47 + JPL elements, checked against JPL Horizons DE441",
    "source": "https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons/"
   },
   "target": {
    "name": "USGS ComCat",
    "source": "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/"
   },
   "method": "For each of 704 M7.0+ mainshocks (USGS ComCat, real UTC event times, Gardner–Knopoff 1974 declustering of the M5.5+ catalog) the Moon phase, distance, ecliptic latitude, Earth–Sun distance and the Moon+Sun tidal amplitude (M/d³) are computed and summarised by 12 metrics. Each is compared with a Monte Carlo null of 2000 randomized-time sets under three schemes — A uniform over 1970–2025, B same day-of-year in a random year, C same year at a random time — seed 369. A metric keeps the least extreme null; its p (normal approximation from z) is Bonferroni-corrected over 12. EFFECT needs corrected p < 0.05.",
   "run_date": "2026-10-27",
   "seed": 369,
   "script": "tq_eval_002_moon_sun.py",
   "machine": "NIK",
   "evaluator": "NIK · Nikola Tesla Web AI Evaluator",
   "fingerprints": {
    "usgs_m55_1970_2025.csv": "eb0b76b9c7b7bcf9cad71b8a18652509df1247428ab2f7ca1a07d1b9a81ad16c",
    "horizons_check.json": "ea6f19dd78da89955ef1b94ebfeb74475e3f2014bd6a5f7fb352261c8b7a379d"
   },
   "note": "Amplitude only: the tide is not resolved onto each fault plane (Ide et al. 2016 did that and report a few-percent rate change for the largest events). E003 extends this to M5.5+ by magnitude and depth group. Earlier research run 2026-09-04 used date-only times on the undeclustered M7+ list.",
   "url": "/evaluator/E002",
   "chart": "/evaluator/E002_chart.png",
   "published": "2026-10-27T12:00:00-05:00",
   "certified": true,
   "certified_at": "2026-10-27",
   "manifest": "/evaluator/E002_MANIFEST.sha256",
   "manifest_sha256": "c7423ad95ef0fd94c29bf43c72d6a2773f8c7e3eec16c975f9c34f01289194b7",
   "ots": "/evaluator/E002_MANIFEST.sha256.ots"
  },
  {
   "id": "E003",
   "title": "Moon+Sun tides vs earthquakes by magnitude and depth",
   "question": "Across magnitude and depth groups of the declustered M5.5+ catalog, do earthquakes cluster at new/full Moon, at perigee, or on the highest-tide days, compared with random times?",
   "result": "NULL",
   "headline_cell": {
    "group": "All M5.5+",
    "most_extreme_metric": "share in bottom tidal decile"
   },
   "n": 16576,
   "ratio": 0.9561275226674466,
   "p": 1.0,
   "headline_stats": {
    "largest_abs_z": 1.822,
    "bonferroni_family": 63,
    "draws": 2000
   },
   "teaser": null,
   "cells": 7,
   "factor": {
    "name": "Moon & Sun tidal amplitude · Meeus ch. 47 + JPL elements, checked against JPL Horizons DE441",
    "source": "https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons/"
   },
   "target": {
    "name": "USGS ComCat",
    "source": "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/"
   },
   "method": "USGS ComCat M5.5+ 1970–2025 with real UTC event times, declustered with Gardner–Knopoff 1974 windows to 16576 mainshocks, split into 7 groups (all, M6+, M7+, shallow ≤70 km, deep >70 km as the control, shallow M6+, shallow M7+). For each event: Moon phase, distance, latitude and the Moon+Sun tidal amplitude; tidal deciles come from a daily grid over the whole span. 9 metrics per group (63 tests) against a Monte Carlo null of 2000 randomized-time sets — A uniform over 1970–2025, C same year at a random time — seed 369. The least extreme null is kept; p (normal approximation from z) is Bonferroni-corrected over 63. EFFECT needs corrected p < 0.05.",
   "run_date": "2026-10-27",
   "seed": 369,
   "script": "tq_eval_003_tides_groups.py",
   "machine": "NIK",
   "evaluator": "NIK · Nikola Tesla Web AI Evaluator",
   "fingerprints": {
    "usgs_m55_1970_2025.csv": "eb0b76b9c7b7bcf9cad71b8a18652509df1247428ab2f7ca1a07d1b9a81ad16c",
    "horizons_check.json": "cc748711826b8bfbfcb80c8af3897b9543f3038f635c6afa8cf1f6848e03af02"
   },
   "note": "Amplitude only: the tide is not resolved onto each fault plane, which is where Ide et al. 2016 report a few-percent rate change for the largest events. Read the trend across groups, not one cell; deep events are the control. Earlier research run 2026-09-04 (same catalog, seed 20260904) found no cell surviving correction.",
   "url": "/evaluator/E003",
   "chart": "/evaluator/E003_chart.png",
   "published": "2026-10-27T12:00:00-05:00",
   "certified": true,
   "certified_at": "2026-10-27",
   "manifest": "/evaluator/E003_MANIFEST.sha256",
   "manifest_sha256": "50384fcb0f495695785486cfe80b99d087c68fe2c5b345720ef70346caeabe70",
   "ots": "/evaluator/E003_MANIFEST.sha256.ots"
  },
  {
   "id": "E004",
   "title": "Geomagnetic storms vs global earthquake rate",
   "question": "Do geomagnetic storms (Kp ≥ 7-/8-/9-) show any measurable effect on the number of declustered earthquakes in the following 14 days?",
   "result": "NULL",
   "headline_cell": {
    "catalog": "A · M5.5+ · 1973→",
    "storm_class": "Kp ≥ 7- (G3 and up)"
   },
   "n": 295,
   "ratio": 1.015,
   "p": 0.454,
   "headline_stats": {
    "mean_after": 9.475,
    "expected_per_window": 9.337,
    "window_days": 14,
    "period": [
     "1973-01-01",
     "2026-07-24"
    ],
    "ratio_ci95": [
     0.977,
     1.052
    ]
   },
   "teaser": null,
   "cells": 6,
   "factor": {
    "name": "GFZ Kp index (definitive)",
    "source": "https://kp.gfz.de"
   },
   "target": {
    "name": "USGS ComCat",
    "source": "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/"
   },
   "method": "Storm onset after ≥7 quiet days (no day at or above the same Kp threshold in the previous 7); declustered (Gardner–Knopoff 1974) counts on days +1…+14 after onset vs. the expected rate (the mean of the shuffled null), vs. the 14 d before, and a 2000-draw shuffled-onset null (dates shuffled within the same calendar year); two-sided p. NULL is declared only where a ±15 % change would have been detectable.",
   "run_date": "2026-09-09",
   "seed": 369,
   "script": "tq_eval_004_storms.py v1.3.1",
   "machine": "NIK",
   "evaluator": "NIK · Nikola Tesla Web AI Evaluator",
   "fingerprints": {
    "kp_daily_max.json": "082507cc361095eaabcb9845cca71f064252aa04ca420575304baeb958c92c69",
    "quakes_M5.5_1973.csv": "0ac6797e7e28479968a9947d7f7c0c5399fb47badd0a1edd764005ecf8efa55e",
    "quakes_M7.0_1932.csv": "5706fe97a042ad08b54412d04a8fb9e307f4408b5b87f92a770e2300c2bb18c0"
   },
   "note": "Kp begins 1932. The Carrington storm of 1859 is outside instrumental coverage and is reported separately from historical records only.",
   "url": "/evaluator/E004",
   "chart": "/evaluator/E004_chart.png",
   "published": "2026-09-09T07:28:50-05:00",
   "certified": true,
   "certified_at": "2026-10-27",
   "manifest": "/evaluator/E004_MANIFEST.sha256",
   "manifest_sha256": "e0ce3215429c6bd4bceb2bfd6bb942415e7448cefff7e67c144378afa283df64",
   "ots": "/evaluator/E004_MANIFEST.sha256.ots"
  }
 ]
}